Sanctions could worsen Rakhine crisis, warns think tank Skip to main content

Sanctions could worsen Rakhine crisis, warns think tank


Any move to impose sanctions on Myanmar over the Rohingya crisis would be unlikely to produce positive change and could exacerbate the situation, a think tank has warned.

It was important to recognise that Myanmar’s political direction over the crisis has been set and would be extremely difficult to change, the International Crisis Group warned in report issued on December 7.

“The strength of the national consensus is hard to overstate: the government, military and almost the entire population of the country are united on this issue as on no other in its modern history. This will make it extraordinarily difficult to move official policy,” the ICG said.

“Any imposition of sanctions thus requires careful deliberation: they can help send a welcome signal that might deter others around the world contemplating similar actions, but they are unlikely to produce positive change in Myanmar and, depending on what precisely is done, could make the situation worse,” it said.

The 19-page report, “Myanmar’s Rohingya crisis enters a dangerous new phase”, provides new background to the August 25 attacks by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army in northern Rakhine State, covers the subsequent “catastrophic” military operation, assesses challenges and discusses the government and international response.

“In addition to unimaginable human suffering, the crisis has transformed Myanmar’s domestic politics and international relations and will have a huge impact on the regional security landscape,” the report said.

“The crisis will define Myanmar in the eyes of much of the world for years to come, with hugely negative consequences across the board on trade, investment, tourism. The country has squandered its considerable reserves of global goodwill just when it needed them most, as it was emerging from decades of isolation from the West,” it said.

“State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi in particular has been widely criticised for failing to use her moral authority and domestic legitimacy to shift anti-Rohingya sentiment in Myanmar and the government’s current course.”

Meanwhile, the exodus of refugees to Bangladesh was continuing and would likely “soon reach its tragic end-point: the almost complete depopulation of Rohingya from northern Rakhine State”, it said.

As well as cautioning against imposing sanctions, the ICG said another important consideration as the crisis entered a “new, fraught and uncertain phase” was repatriation.

There needed to be continued insistence on the right of refugees to return in a voluntary, safe and dignified manner, the Brussels-based think tank said.

“Fundamentally, neither the government nor security forces possess the political will to create conditions for voluntary return and implement a credible and effective process to that end,” it said.

The “grim reality” was that most Rohingya in Bangladesh would not be going home any time soon.

 “This presents the enormous humanitarian challenge of sustaining lives and dignity in the largest refugee camp in the world,” the ICG said, adding that it also posed grave political and security risks that needed to be addressed. They included potential cross-border attacks by ARSA and possible transnational terrorism.

In advice to “policymakers”, the ICG urges that any response should have a limited potential impact on the Myanmar people, “who should not pay the price for the actions of a military that is constitutionally outside of democratic control”.

It says policymakers should resist the urge to disengage from Myanmar, maintain development assistance and non-military engagement, work carefully to minimise the collateral effect of any targeted sanctions and engage with the military and government before imposing sanctions.

https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/sanctions-could-worsen-rakhine-crisis-warns-think-tank

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Chronology of the Press in Burma

1836 – 1846 * During this period the first English-language newspaper was launched under British-ruled Tenasserim, southern  Burma . The first ethnic Karen-language and Burmese-language newspapers also appear in this period.     March 3, 1836 —The first English-language newspaper,  The Maulmain Chronicle , appears in the city of Moulmein in British-ruled Tenasserim. The paper, first published by a British official named E.A. Blundell, continued up until the 1950s. September 1842 —Tavoy’s  Hsa-tu-gaw  (the  Morning Star ), a monthly publication in the Karen-language of  Sgaw ,  is established by the Baptist mission. It is the first ethnic language newspaper. Circulation reached about three hundred until its publication ceased in 1849. January 1843 —The Baptist mission publishes a monthly newspaper, the Christian  Dhamma  Thadinsa  (the  Religious Herald ), in Moulmein. Supposedly the first Burmese-language newspaper, it continued up until the first year of the second Angl

ARSA claims ambush on Myanmar security forces

Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) on Sunday claimed responsibility for an ambush on Myanmar security forces that left several wounded in northern Rakhine state, the first attack in weeks in a region gutted by violence. Rakhine was plunged into turmoil last August, when a series of ARSA raids prompted a military backlash so brutal the UN says it likely amounts to ethnic cleansing of the Muslim Rohingya minority. The army campaign sent some 650,000 Rohingya fleeing for Bangladesh, where refugees have given harrowing accounts of rape, murder and arson at the hands of security forces and vigilantes. Myanmar's military, which tightly controls information about Rakhine, denies any abuses and insists the crackdown was a proportionate response to crush the "terrorist" threat. ARSA have launched few attacks in recent months.  But the army reported that "about ten" Rohingya terrorists ambushed a car with hand-made mines and gunfire on Friday morning

Thai penis whitening trend raises eyebrows

Image copyright LELUXHOSPITAL Image caption Authorities warn the procedure could be quite painful A supposed trend of penis whitening has captivated Thailand in recent days and left it asking if the country's beauty industry is taking things too far. Skin whitening is nothing new in many Asian countries, where darker skin is often associated with outdoor labour, therefore, being poorer. But even so, when a clip of a clinic's latest intriguing procedure was posted online, it quickly went viral. Thailand's health ministry has since issued a warning over the procedure. The BBC Thai service spoke to one patient who had undergone the treatment, who told them: "I wanted to feel more confident in my swimming briefs". The 30-year-old said his first session of several was two months ago, and he had since seen a definite change in the shade. 'What for?' The original Facebook post from the clinic offering the treatment, which uses lasers to break do