Yin Hongwei, chief reporter for China’s World View magazine and professor of the Journalism and Communications Department, Southwest China University of Political Science, visited Eleven Media Group (EMG) on August 28 and had an interview
with EMG CEO Dr Than Htut Aung about China-Myanmar relationship. In
2012 also, he arrived in Myanmar and had an interview with Dr Than Htut
Aung about the same topic. The second interview is published in the
newspaper with consent of Yin Hongwei.
What do you think about the
relationship between Myanmar and China when China makes investment in
Myanmar? China had a very good relationship with the former Myanmar
government. However, many problems have arisen when Myanmar starts
carrying out democratic reforms. What is the reason?
The key player
is the former Myanmar government. It was a military junta. Most of the
government officials are corrupt. Some Chinese companies were involved
in corruption cases. They did business in an unlawful and unethical
manner. However, they hurt themselves when Myanmar is in democratic
transition. Now, they have rivals from other countries. When Myanmar
media has freedom under the new government, people and media point out
their unfairness, the government is no longer in a position to do what
it wants. That is why problems occurred between Chinese investors and
Myanmar government. Public protests and dissatisfaction emerge as the
Myanmar people assume that Chinese companies and investments have
harmful effects on them and the nation.
Why did the Myanmar people
protest against Myitsone dam project, Letpadaungtaung copper mine
project, Kyauk Phyu gas pipeline project and now the planned railroad
project?
If I say, the people do not like any of
those projects. However, some will not go against the projects if the
country does not suffer much although they are to be implemented under
the agreement of the previous government. Political parties, journalists
and activists cannot totally agree on some projects. Some can accept
them with limitations. For example, we cannot accept the resumption of
Myitsone project. China will ask
for compensation for what they have lost. If they want to do so, we
need to ask the Chinese government to deal with corruption cases. Who
took bribes and how much? How much did the Myanmar government receive?
If there is any corruption in doing business, it is unethical. It is
illegal in the international court. The Myitsone project cannot be
allowed to resume. If they consider compensation claims, the government
might give them an appropriate amount of compensation. But they will not
be given what it should not deserve. Whomever they try to approach,
Aung San Suu Kyi or the next government, their plan will not work.
Whatever government takes office-- even if it is Aung San Suu Kyi—they
will face public opposition if they resume the Myitsone project. This is
one factor.
Another is the railroad project. For
China, the railroad is a way out to the Indian Ocean. It is the nation
security issue for Myanmar. If China undertakes that railroad project
using their own money
under BOT (Build, operate and transfer) system for fifty years, it is
not acceptable. This is because we assume that Myanmar would be another
Crimea or another province for China. We have some conditions to be
under the influence of China because it is a superpower. China’s
military buildup, regional situations, economic, political and military
growths and South China Sea dispute are a great deal of pressure on the
Myanmar people and government. We will not approve of the project. We
must consider for our country. The reason is not the Chinese government.
Anyhow, we must see the long-term interest of our country.
Letpadaungtaung copper mine project or Kyauk Phyu gas pipeline project
are concerned with the local people’s interest. As they are not
concerned with the whole nation, we do not show objection. Both the oil
and gas pipelines have been complete. But in the Letpadaungtaung case,
it is necessary to consider about the locals. The Letpadaungtaung and
Kyauk Phyu projects are no problem but the two other projects are
unacceptable.
At first, the Chinese government
and its people considered all the projects as a single problem. After
you have explained, I can now see them separately.
Our people are not against China. The
Myanmar people are protecting their own interest. That needs to be seen.
It is not true the Myanmar people hate China just because they are
investing in Myanmar. We cannot accept those two projects (Myitsone and
railroad projects) as they can harm the country’s interest.
I have understood about Myitsone
project. However, please tell me how Myanmar and China can cooperate in
investing in other sectors.
It is the type of Investment coming from
other countries like Japan and the United States and the EU, especially
Asean countries in the private sector rather than investments between
governments. Those investments are in hotel,
tourism and construction sectors. Japan and Asean countries are
investing mainly in industrial development rather than in oil and gas
exploration. Meanwhile, China is making investment mainly in seeking
natural resources. That will tarnish its image.
They should invest in the businesses the EU, Japan and Asean are doing.
China has advanced technology. I want to ask them to invest in other
areas such as information technology and industrial zones, but not
natural resources.
Myanmar plans to establish a
special economic zone in Kyauk Phyu. Many Chinese investors want to come
but they are worried about any objection. I want to know whether it is
possible to relieve their worries.
In my view, I want the Chinese
government not to build the railroad in a rush. It is because armed
ethnic groups from Wa and Mongla have close ties with the Chinese
government. Under this circumstance, it is not possible to construct the
railroad with China's funds of 50 billion. We understand that we have
to construct a railroad upon completion of Kyauk Phyu deep-sea port.
However, it is impossible right now. When can it be? If Myanmar’s
economy improves, we can build it with our own funds. If we regain our
sovereignty in Wa and Mongla regions or if the Wa armed group lays down
their weapons, we will build the railroad. China will surely make a
profit on the Kyauk Phyu project after ten or fifteen years. When the Wa
group disarm themselves in a ten or fifteen year’s time, we can build
it by ourselves, but not with China’s money. The railroad will benefit
our country as well as China. However, the time is not right and we have
to wait. Come to Kyauk Phyu and Rakhine State for investment. Investing
in Kyauk Phyu can benefit the Chinese because Rakhine State is abundant
in natural resources and work force. However, China must have more
transparency to avoid protests. Like other countries, China needs to
take responsibilities and make preparations. Do not worry about China’s
investment in here.
Does the government have any
intention to build the railroad with financial aid from Japan and the
United States if you do not want to seek Chinese help?
I think so
What is your opinion if that happens?
We want to suspend the project until the
ethnic problems are solved. Frankly speaking, we will ask China to make
the Wa armed group disarm themselves. And if a federal system emerges,
then we will build the railroad with financial aid from China, Japan and
other countries. We will build it if necessary. That railroad must be
owned by Myanmar alone, not China. This is the main thing. We own the
railroad because for the relations with China, it will link
Yangon and Kyauk Phyu. It will link Kunming and Yangon and Kyauk Phyu
and Kunming respectively. Motor roads and railroads will be built. But
we have to wait. Our country must be stable with flourishing democracy.
There must be a free and fair election. The Wa group has to surrender
their weapons unconditionally. After that, we will build the railroad as
the Chinese do such things in their country. Japan, the United Kingdom
and EU also financially support China in building such roads. We will
try to build such a railroad for business purposes.
Do you think Wa will listen to the Chinese?
They will have to listen to both Myanmar
and Chinese governments. They cannot accept China only. If they do not
agree with both governments to disarm, I think they will face military
action.
One question is about the
Chinese investors who have come from China to Myanmar. They do not have
good relations with locals and ethnics. Do you know how the Chinese can
change their attitude for good relations?
Both the Chinese government and people
think all is Ok if they have a good relationship with the Myanmar
government. Discard this belief. Actually, in Myanmar, government and
people are separate.
May I know about a more specific idea? Could you advise how to build a good relationship with the locals?
As I said earlier, it is only necessary
to choose a government that has good relations with the people. If
Myanmar has that kind of government, it will be easy for the Chinese to
have good relations with the government. I mean if Myanmar has a
democratic government aspired by the people, relations between Chinese
and Myanmar people will improve.
What do you want me to tell those who engage in the Myitsone project?
Give it up. Let alone other people, we
will criticise even Aung San Suu Kyi if she talks about it. We are not
against it because we like the United States and Western countries and
hate China. It is only for the welfare of our country.
In the 2015 election, the
Chinese see Thein Sein, Thura Shwe Mann, Aung San Suu Kyi and Senior
General Min Aung Hlaing as potential candidates for presidency. What is
your opinion?
Aung San Suu Kyi cannot be president
according to the 2008 constitution. However, I am sure that the Union
Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) will not win it. The National
League for Democracy (NLD) and its allied parties will win it. In our
electoral system for choosing president, three vice presidents will be
choose and among them, the one who have most votes will be elected as
president. The lower house and upper house choose two vice presidents.
The military chooses one. Two vice presidents chosen by the lower house
and upper house are elected through elections. The two cannot be a USDP
candidate or army candidate. What I mean is that NLD and its allies will
win it. So whatever they do for proportional representation system or
steal votes, the two vice presidents will be Aung San Suu Kyi or another
selected by NLD and herself. Whatever the 25 percent of MPs who are
military representatives oppose them, the one who have most votes will
be those elected by the lower house and upper house. I mean that
incumbent President Thein Sein has less than 20 per cent to be
re-elected as president. If Aung San Suu Kyi will not be president, it
is very likely that the one she supports will be president. If there is
any election fraud, unrest and protests will emerge. Then you cannot
make investment. It is a real situation. We have had such records in
history. In the 1990 election, NLD and its allies won 95 per cent of the
vote. In 2012 by-election, NLD won 90 per cent and it will be like that
in the 2015 election. Whatever they cheat on election, NLD and its
allied parties and ethnic parties will win if they get 80 to 90 per cent
of total votes. Whatever they cheat on people, everybody thinks the
potential of Thein Sein to be re-elected as president will be less than
20 per cent.
If Aung San Suu Kyi cannot become president, who do you think will be elected as president?
It will be the one chosen by her.
However, if the NLD wins it, the military and its allies will control 40
per cent of total power. NLD will have 60 per cent.
Before I came to Myanmar, I met
with the councilors of the United States, United Kingdom and Canada in
China. I asked them whether they would support Aung San Suu Kyi in the
election or not. They answered me that they would not support her
personally. However, they will support Myanmar’s democracy. How do you
think about it?
The main thing is their business
interest. China also has its interest. The Western countries have their
own interest. They tend to emphasize their stability and power on
Myanmar rather than helping her to develop. They may not like Aung San
Suu Kyi. However if the people like her, their personal dislike will
end.
Is Aung San Suu Kyi restricted by section 436? Is it necessary to amend section 436 only or the whole constitution?
Every section can be amended for the
sake of national reconciliation. I mean if national reconciliation plan
is successful between the military and people. Section 436 or 59 (f) can
be amended if the military and people negotiate. At present, the entire
constitution cannot be amended. Federal system is not possible at the
moment. Peace plan has also been on the paper only. All the issues,
including a federal system will take shape after 2020. Some issues can
be addressed before 2015. We need to address some between 2015 and 2020.
A lot of negotiations are necessary. What I mean is that power sharing
and struggle will still exist between the military and the people until
2020. So those issues are not as important as constitutional amendments.
The important thing is mutual trust between the military and the
people. If both sides do not confront each other, we can continue to
reach our goal. We can amend them. All will be complete before 2020.
What do you think about the peace talks between the government and armed ethnic groups?
All are trying to make agreement on
paper. Actually, all will not OK just after signing a ceasefire accord.
It is only for a show business. The civil war in Myanmar has existed for
66 years since 1948. It is the longest civil war in the world. The
66-year civil war will not end with a merely agreement. The genuine
political talks will take place between 2015 and 2020. In 2020, a new
constitution will be drafted and the federal system will take shape. In
the mean time, we will continue our job regularly to avoid
confrontation.
Before I came here, I met with a
US congressman. He asked me how Myanmar would implement a ceasefire
plan and who would supervise after signing the ceasefire agreement. What
is your opinion?
No one needs to supervise. We will do it
by ourselves. Ethnic conflicts occurred in Myanmar not because of power
struggle. It is the political issue. The problems cannot be solved by
the armed groups alone. The ethnic armed groups are not strong enough.
It is not the problem of armed groups. What we have is a political
problem and if we make negotiation, we can disarm them. The problem is
the political issue, not the military issue.
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