Myanmar’s northeast: China’s version of Crimea?
- Published on Monday, 17 March 2014 21:39
- Written by Nay Tun Naing
YANGON—Reports
are circulating that Chinese authorities proposed to the Myanmar
government before the end of last year that Wa soldiers be assigned to
the Kyaukphyu-Kunming oil pipeline project to take care of security.
The
source was reportedly someone who monitors military affairs near the
China-Myanmar border area. But the report, which has not been confirmed,
also said that the Myanmar government refused the Chinese proposal.
The
Kyaukphyu-Kunming gas pipeline passes through central Myanmar and is
connected to Kunming in China. It is still too early to say whether the
project will be a stable investment. The project was announced despite
widespread public opposition. Due to a strong campaign against the
project, conflicts and disagreements related to the construction of the
gas pipeline are now occurring between the company and local residents.
Battles
are now taking place along northern Shan State, through which the
pipeline is expected to pass while extending the military’s strength.
The
Chinese authorities, of course, do not want to see any more unrest
about the pipeline, which will directly support Chinese interests. That
is why, according to political analysts, China thought that soldiers
from the Wa Solidarity Party, which is strongly influenced by the China,
would be useful for maintaining pipeline security.
Based
on the mutual understanding between Myanmar and China, the Chinese
authorities pledged that Wa ethnic leaders would participate in talks
and sign the nationwide ceasefire agreement, according to someone who
monitors military affairs.
Despite
all the instability, the gas pipeline project is not the only major
infrastructure project China is pushing in Myanmar. Kyaukphyu-Kunming is
only one project in the Chinese development strategy. As a second
phase, China is striving to build the Kyaukphyu-Kunming railroad
project. That is why the two countries have signed a Memorandum of
Understanding-MoU.
On
the other hand, the future of the Wa nationals is worrisome because the
Wa are generally understood to be under Chinese influence. The United
Wa State Army (UWSA), one of the most powerful armies among the ethnic
armed groups, is now receiving Chinese aid.
Although the two sides have denied any such financial support, research has confirmed that it happened.
Some
Chinese authorities met with the Wa leaders in Kunming of China last
December. During a politburo meeting of the Wa Solidarity Party held
earlier this year, party leaders born in Myanmar had been substituted
for Chinese leaders.
Crimea crisis of Russia-Ukraine
Although
there are many differences between the two situations, there has been
widespread concern that the current Russia-Ukraine crisis offers a hint
of what might be going on with the Myanmar-Wa affair.
The
Crimean region was situated in Russian territory before Ukraine gained
her independence after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. As Ukraine
gained independence, the Crimean region fell under its influence.
Ukraine continued allowing Russian navy troops from the Black Sea to be
stationed in the Crimean region. But Crimea did not become a political
firecracker while Ukraine and Russia were still on good terms.
However,
when a popular revolt toppled President Viktor Yanukovych with Russia’s
support, the American Central Intelligence Agency systematically
arranged a plan to expose unpleasant aspects of the situation. Russia’s
response was to occupy the Crimean region. Crimea, where Russian
language is widely spoken, has now voted in a referendum to rejoin
Russia.
Myanmar-China “Wa” issue
The
situation of the Wa autonomous region is by no means identical to that
of Crimea. But only those who speak Chinese live in the Wa autonomous
region. The majority of residents are Chinese and only Chinese currency
is used in the Wa autonomous region. In some matters, Wa leaders follow
the directives of Chinese authorities. The Wa fully require China’s
help. Myanmar-China relations are seen as Paukphaw (relatives). At a
time when Myanmar and China are improving their relations, the situation
in Wa region is raising questions. At present, Wa people have a desire
to be recognised as an autonomous state and are demanding just that.
“Russia wants Crimea and China wants Wa, too,” said writer Htet Myet.
“It
is too complicated for Wa region to make comparisons with Ukraine
-except to say it gives China another area of leverage and power,” said
journalist Tom Fawthrop, who is familiar with Southeast Asian affairs.
A new Chinese strategy appears to be centering on Myanmar.
String of Pearls strategy
In
2000, Chinese discovered a new strategy to prepare itself for the
challenges of international politics, economy and security that lay
ahead. This “string of pearls” approach to energy security would help
the People’s Republic to gain influence over other regions in the world.
Myanmar is in a strategic position for China to apply this strategy.
Given that it has yet to control the South China Sea, it is in China’s
interest to seek access to the Indian Ocean by crossing Myanmar’s
inland. If China can secure such an inland passage, its commodity
transport routes to Africa will be shortened via the South China Sea by
crossing the Malacca Strait.
Part
of the string of pearls strategy is aimed at the United States: knowing
the U.S. appears incapable of securing future energy security, it is
advantageous to control the Indian Ocean. Under this strategy, China
intends to control all water territory up to the Persian Gulf and will
build ports in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. Myanmar
thus becomes a key location for China as its transition point between
maritime and inland energy routes.
Kyaukphyu
becomes an important port in the string of pearls strategy. Oil and gas
can be transported from offshore blocks in Myanmar. The
Kyaukphyu-Kunming gas pipeline was built crossing the inland of Myanmar.
An express railroad was also prepared. This project becomes the opening
step in the string of pearls strategy.
Moreover,
Kokokyun and Zardatgyi islands become the best places for China to
station its navy troops under the string of pearls strategy.
Express railways, and sustainability of the Union
Recent
news has emerged that Myanmar’s Ministry of Rail Transportation is
re-assessing surveys conducted by China for a railway project to connect
Kyaukphyu and Kunming. China is to bear most of the cost for the
project, which will be a 50-year Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) project.
This is China’s main project passing through Myanmar.
The
oil and natural gas pipeline is an initiative for the railway project.
Once the project is launched, Myanmar states such as Rakhine and Shan,
as well as regions such as Magway and Mandalay, are certain to suffer
unfortunate side effects.
“There
is no doubt that China will be the main power using that railway, and
that Chinese companies will dominate the economic zone that's under
construction at Kyaukphyu,” said Bertil Lintner, a Swedish journalist
and a Myanmar affairs expert.
The worst impact appears to be that Myanmar’s sovereignty and the sustainability of its “Union” will be threatened.
Currently,
there is no doubt that China has gained a foothold in the country, with
projects scattered across Myanmar. Likewise, Chinese nationals and
business people have penetrated deep into the country, through Shan
State and even bypassing Mandalay in central Myanmar.
So
it’s sure to be a concern for the sustainability of the Union which
will certainly lose its “East” door once the Kyaukphyu-Kunming railway
project is launched.
“When
we mainly focus on security affairs for the country’s ‘West’ door, this
only creates a situation where the country has no door at the east. The
50-year BOT project, which will be financed by China, is a big threat
to Myanmar’s national security,” said Than Htut Aung, the CEO of Eleven
Media Group.
“After
a detailed analysis, it’s very doubtful that those who accepted this
project and are trying to implement it are real citizens of Myanmar. We
all should object to the project, which is unpatriotic.”
Writer
Than Soe Naing argued that the government should reconsider all Chinese
megaprojects at the moment—including the Kyaukphyu-Kunming railway
project.
“They
must be reconsidered, given the current climate of ‘worries’ and
‘emotions’ for the country's national affairs. Though a road
construction is good in other ways, for the time being we can’t view it
optimistically. Though the former government had worked for the sake of
better transportation, their purpose seemed to be strategic rather than
economic when reviewed. This project should be suspended for now,” said
Than Soe Naing.
Even
if the project is acceptable on economic grounds alone, said writer
Htet Myet, Myanmar should still be wary because China may well have
another agenda for the project.
In
this context, it is useful to examine the history of Myanmar-China
relations. After Burma’s independence from British Rule, China’s
People’s Liberation Army once invaded the country. Despite China’s
policy of not interfering with Myanmar’s domestic affairs, Chinese
troops invaded the country in 1960 on the pretext that it was simply
trying to attack fleeing Kuomintang troops. China invaded again in early
1968 after communal violence against the Chinese community throughout
the country.
“Not
only with China, we should also consider our national economy,
healthcare, culture and security affairs in deciding how we should
cooperate with other countries,” said economist Dr Aung Ko Ko.
The example of Laos
China’s
influence over Myanmar has lasted more than a decade. Chinese
manipulation of other Southeast Asian countries, especially by the
military sector, has lasted even longer. In all this time, questions
have been raised about China’s influence over Myanmar and Laos’s
sovereignty.
“Whenever
the Lao PDR needs to host a major international event they turned to
the Chinese government to finance and build –first they built the new
sports stadium for the hosting of the ASEAN games. In 2012 China built
the ASEM conference centre and residential complex. Meanwhile a new
Chinatown is springing up in part of the capital Vientiane,” said
journalist Tom Fawthrop.
Moreover,
there is the plan to build a hugely expensive Hi-speed train connecting
Kunming- Vientiane will bring an ever greater influx of Chinese
establishing themselves as immigrants –both legal and illegal- and
threatening the survival of the Lao nations and its patchwork of more
than 50 different ethnic groups, Fawthrop added.
“In
the area of the Golden Triangle, the Lao communist government has
virtually ceded all control over 16,000 hectares of land to Chinese
tycoon Chao Wei and his King Romans Group. A similar pattern has been at
work in Myanmar with China dominating extractive industries and
hydropower dam construction,” he said.
Chinese projects under dispute
According
to the history of Myanmar-China bilateral relations, there has been
much give and take. The government that took office after Myanmar gained
independence worried about the invasion of China. The military
dictatorships after the 1988 uprising, by contrast, totally relied on
China, took out loans, and signed agreements.
During
the time of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) and State
Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) governments, Myanmar took
Chinese assistance and with no concern of transparency surrounding any
of the projects involved.
Therefore, every agreement signed with the Chinese has been biased and unfair.
Currently,
the Chinese government is mainly emphasizing five megaprojects in
Myanmar. They are the Letpadaungtaung copper mine, the Myitsone dam, the
Tarpane hydropower project, the Kyauk Phyu-Kumming oil pipeline and the
Takhaung nickel mine.
Among
these projects, the Myitsone dam was suspended by President Thein Sein
due to strong opposition from the public. The Kyaukphyu-Kunming oil
pipeline project is finished, and the Letpadaungtaung project—although
opposed by the public—has been allowed to continue.
“Many
of these controversial projects clearly offer many benefits to China,
but what does Myanmar lose more than it gains from such environmentally
destructive dams and toxic mining projects? The benefits appear to be
lopsided in China's favour,” said Fawthrop.
“If
we are dependent on China, they will use us. It’s like what the doctor
will be like if the patient has a stomach pain. We have to do whatever
we can to avoid stomach pain if we don’t want the doctor to look at it,”
said Dr Aung Ko Ko.
Hla
Shwe, a student leader from the 1962 generation, said that not enough
is known about what kind of agreements have been made between the two
countries.
“Some
agreements have not been publicly announced, and the people are always
the last to know. We have to examine each one of them, on a case-by-case
basis, for the benefit of the country. It is the government’s duty to
look at them from a national security perspective,” said Hla Shwe.
People who examine the projects from a national security perspective say the Kyaukphyu-Kumming railroad should not be allowed.
Normally,
when the government has approved a project after looking only at the
economical benefits, subsequent problems have been difficult to
anticipate.
“In
the midst of the Rakhine State and Muslim conflicts happening in
Myanmar, the oil and gas project is finished. Now, we can’t allow the
construction of the railroad to be completed while we’re focused on
amending the constitution and preparing for the 2015 election. We have
to look at all aspects,” said EMG CEO Than Htut Aung.
http://www.elevenmyanmar.com/
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