In the midst of the political chaos - a situation closer to anarchy, in fact - the Election Commission has dropped a bombshell.
The decision to seek the dissolution of the ruling Democrat Party could not have come at a worse time, from half the nation's perspective at least, but that was probably what the other half of Thailand felt late in 2008, when the People Power Party (PPP) was dissolved right in the middle of the Suvarnabhumi Airport crisis.
So, what's the deal? Why did the EC all of a sudden choose to make an already complicated situation even more so? The real answer could be a complex one - or perhaps not.
Less than two days after the bloodiest political violence in two decades and two hours after Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva had vowed to dig himself out of the jam, the EC decided to twist the knife.
Pro-Democrat pessimists see the EC's move as a warning that if Abhisit stubbornly tries to fight on, he might end up "dead on the prime minister's chair", like Somchai Wongsawat before him.
Play safe, dissolve the House and give your party a chance, goes this theory. In other words, if Abhisit chooses to wait until a Constitution Court ruling comes, a guilty verdict would surely hand over power to the Pheu Thai Party camp. It would be automatic, without the need for a general election.
While this theory suggests some kind of a conspiracy - either among the commissioners themselves or between the EC and the Attorney-General's Office, which has to approve the Democrat case and send it to the Constitution Court - another theory is much more straightforward: the commissioners, seeing the political winds starting to shift, could be simply trying to save themselves.
The red shirts besieged the EC headquarters last week and threatened to come back if there was no progress on the long-delayed Democrat case. However, the possibility of another menacing red-shirt rally may not be as scary as the threat of a legal clampdown similar to the one that sent "pro-Thaksin" commissioners to jail a few years ago. Election commissioners may have a prestigious job but, politically and legally speaking, they are among the most vulnerable.
Perhaps the real motive was a simple "Let's pass the buck to the Attorney-General's Office." The latter will have to make a decision within 30 days on what to do with the case. It can pass it to the Constitution Court or tell the EC the case holds no ground, in which case the commission will have to choose whether to drop it or reaffirm the case and be the prosecutor itself.
The real question is whether Abhisit has the luxury of time to wait for those possible developments. The red shirts are still occupying the Rajprasong intersection and are literally calling for his head. The Army, in its attempt to distance itself from Saturday's bloodbath by blaming "politics", seems to be drifting further apart from the government. Coalition allies, meanwhile, are getting increasingly restless.
The increasing pressures - from the red shirts, the Army, coalition allies and the EC - must now be staggering. However, how their different agendas help or make things worse for the Democrats remains to be seen.
The Army wants to make sure the annual reshuffle - to go into effect in October - is not meddled with. Abhisit's allies want to amend the charter first to give themselves better chances in a new election before the prime minister dissolves the House. The red shirts want a House dissolution now.
To add to the complexities, Pheu Thai - the parliamentary arm of ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra that is allegedly trying to shake itself from his shadow - does not want to amend the Constitution.
Assuming Abhisit manages to scrape through the highly acrimonious and dangerous aftermath of the bloodshed, he will have three months or so if the dissolution process against the PPP in 2008 is anything to go by. The PPP case stopped for one month at the Attorney-General's Office, and it then took the Constitution Court less then two months to come up with a devastating verdict.
The dust is still up in the air. All of a sudden, Abhisit faces a bigger crisis than did Samak Sundaravej, Somchai Wongsawat and, in many aspects, even Thaksin Shinawatra. Even if he manages to navigate the current minefield, the EC's decision means what awaits him on the other side could be something just as deadly.
The Nations
The decision to seek the dissolution of the ruling Democrat Party could not have come at a worse time, from half the nation's perspective at least, but that was probably what the other half of Thailand felt late in 2008, when the People Power Party (PPP) was dissolved right in the middle of the Suvarnabhumi Airport crisis.
So, what's the deal? Why did the EC all of a sudden choose to make an already complicated situation even more so? The real answer could be a complex one - or perhaps not.
Less than two days after the bloodiest political violence in two decades and two hours after Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva had vowed to dig himself out of the jam, the EC decided to twist the knife.
Pro-Democrat pessimists see the EC's move as a warning that if Abhisit stubbornly tries to fight on, he might end up "dead on the prime minister's chair", like Somchai Wongsawat before him.
Play safe, dissolve the House and give your party a chance, goes this theory. In other words, if Abhisit chooses to wait until a Constitution Court ruling comes, a guilty verdict would surely hand over power to the Pheu Thai Party camp. It would be automatic, without the need for a general election.
While this theory suggests some kind of a conspiracy - either among the commissioners themselves or between the EC and the Attorney-General's Office, which has to approve the Democrat case and send it to the Constitution Court - another theory is much more straightforward: the commissioners, seeing the political winds starting to shift, could be simply trying to save themselves.
The red shirts besieged the EC headquarters last week and threatened to come back if there was no progress on the long-delayed Democrat case. However, the possibility of another menacing red-shirt rally may not be as scary as the threat of a legal clampdown similar to the one that sent "pro-Thaksin" commissioners to jail a few years ago. Election commissioners may have a prestigious job but, politically and legally speaking, they are among the most vulnerable.
Perhaps the real motive was a simple "Let's pass the buck to the Attorney-General's Office." The latter will have to make a decision within 30 days on what to do with the case. It can pass it to the Constitution Court or tell the EC the case holds no ground, in which case the commission will have to choose whether to drop it or reaffirm the case and be the prosecutor itself.
The real question is whether Abhisit has the luxury of time to wait for those possible developments. The red shirts are still occupying the Rajprasong intersection and are literally calling for his head. The Army, in its attempt to distance itself from Saturday's bloodbath by blaming "politics", seems to be drifting further apart from the government. Coalition allies, meanwhile, are getting increasingly restless.
The increasing pressures - from the red shirts, the Army, coalition allies and the EC - must now be staggering. However, how their different agendas help or make things worse for the Democrats remains to be seen.
The Army wants to make sure the annual reshuffle - to go into effect in October - is not meddled with. Abhisit's allies want to amend the charter first to give themselves better chances in a new election before the prime minister dissolves the House. The red shirts want a House dissolution now.
To add to the complexities, Pheu Thai - the parliamentary arm of ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra that is allegedly trying to shake itself from his shadow - does not want to amend the Constitution.
Assuming Abhisit manages to scrape through the highly acrimonious and dangerous aftermath of the bloodshed, he will have three months or so if the dissolution process against the PPP in 2008 is anything to go by. The PPP case stopped for one month at the Attorney-General's Office, and it then took the Constitution Court less then two months to come up with a devastating verdict.
The dust is still up in the air. All of a sudden, Abhisit faces a bigger crisis than did Samak Sundaravej, Somchai Wongsawat and, in many aspects, even Thaksin Shinawatra. Even if he manages to navigate the current minefield, the EC's decision means what awaits him on the other side could be something just as deadly.
The Nations
Comments